Jenson Daily Green Piece
"TESLA Sighting in Venice Beach, Desert Racing Trucks, Flash Mob in San Francisco in Early 1990s, LA's Traffic Problem Can't Get Worse, Lithium Powered Cars Compared to 60's Muscle Cars and more!"
Date: 4/27/2010
We caught our first street level view of a TESLA on Sunday ironically while riding bikes to a Vegan restaurant in VENICE. I almost crashed into a tree after breaking out in uncontrollable laughter as the scene was so typical LA as we were riding to dinner after attending a yoga/art class. Now you have to understand that we often spend weekends on two stroke motorcycles and in the driver’s seat of high octane burning desert racing trucks. Battling the laws of physics such as Force=Distance/Time resulting in frequent Emergency Room visits eventually gave way to speculation concerning theories on probability of personal longevity if such activities were continued. Statistics always dictate our decisions as any question can be answered by mathematics. Subsequently our weekends are usually spent riding bikes to surf, practice yoga or enjoy a sunset. As Blondie so eloquently stated, “…only a nobody walks in LA…” commuting and driving in Los Angeles can only be described as ridiculous with all 20 million inhabitants owning 1.2 cars which they seem to drive constantly judging by the traffic jam on Friday night at 11PM on the 405/10. Though we are very conscious of the need for sustainability and the need to lower carbon emissions, our “Green Lifestyle” is just another example that altruism is ultimately directly linked to something self serving.
We are far from Vegan though a growing percentage of our meals now qualify us as part time herbivores. Low impact athletic activities and a healthier diet clearly improve aesthetics while sharpening cognitive abilities. The bicycle as an alternative means for transportation also improves health and I dare say significantly lowers the stress from driving in Los Angeles which can best be compared to a virtual demolition derby. If you will grant us further liberty with our prose and direction in this article, we reminisce back to the early 1990’s in San Francisco when we participated in a precursor to the “Flash Mob” crossed with an aggressive form of social protest. This was Critical Mass. For those of you unfamiliar, Critical Mass was a monthly form of protest in San Francisco where hundreds of bicyclists would converge on downtown San Francisco one Friday each month and ride in a chaotic, winding serpentine a half-mile long snarling traffic throughout San Francisco into gridlock. Participating in Critical Mass was our first taste of postmodern social protest and at times thrilled though it quickly took on an ugly face as violent altercations eventually broke out between frustrated motorists and cyclists. We had no idea at the time what the ultimate goal of Critical Mass was other than social disruption hopefully forcing motorists to consider using the vast public transportation resources available in the Bay Area. In all honesty, the rush or high from riding shoulder to shoulder with other peddling eco maniacs was our true motivation. Today our trips to San Francisco are spent dodging cyclists who now dominate the streets of San Francisco and this brings a thoughtful smile to our faces. Now would Critical Mass work in Los Angeles and is it reasonable to commute by bicycle? Sadly we are fairly certain that such a form of social protest would result in a “Ride By Shooting” and it is simply not possible to make traffic any worse in LA. Additionally, commuting by bicycle is not yet a reasonable alternative in LA as public transportation is inefficient at best and most residents do not even know LA has a subway system.
We know that unless you are in Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, New York or a handful of other developing enlightened metropolitan areas, commuting by bike or public transportation is not yet a reasonable option. While making this concession, we implore you to try one salad a day and one errand by foot or bicycle a day for a month. If your health and cognitive abilities do not improve then get in a V-8, accelerate 0-60 quickly as possible heading straight to McDonalds as the battle for Earth is clearly over.
As this is a financial column, we will get back to TESLA. Lithium powered cars are actually very cool. Now this opinion is tempered by our love for classic American muscle cars of the 60’s and the scream of high horse power engines. There is something musical about a roaring V-8 with a 4-Barrel carburetor and headers blowing out huge pipes. However, we have grown to love the quiet hum of the Toyota Prius, and even more the Lexus 400 or Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid. Comparing the two is like comparing Heavy Metal to a melodic symphony or a mosh-pit at a punk rock show to a picnic at a summer evening concert series at the Hollywood Bowl. There is quite a rush burning the tires of a 500 HP V-8 roaring engine, but we have been struggling with the need for cacophony if in fact the TESLA can probably outperform most 60’s muscle cars we romanticize. The only unfortunate reality is that the price point for most of the battery powered automobiles makes them a luxury item for those who shake their fists at our desert racing trucks.
Jenson Daily Green Piece
"Volvo and Honda in China, Whale Excrement, Brazil, Central America and Hawaii, Green Efforts, Green Lifestyle and more!"
Date: 4/23/2010
Volvo and Honda are entering the electric automobile market in China. This is really not a surprise with both companies now having significant roots in China. Many companies entering the Chinese Green markets are doing so in anticipation of significant government subsidies and tax credits. Sadly Spain is considering retroactively eliminating many of the green subsidies they were providing Companies which ultimately most likely will not be the factor that saves their economy. More likely it will ensure they fall well beyond the rest of the EU in Green Technology ensuring ultimate economic deterioration. There is a growing move for regulation or transparency of the derivatives market especially for the developing Carbon Credit futures market. As the Kyoto Protocol has lost some momentum and the Copenhagen Summit failed to produce any measureable results, a new face in Green international politics has emerged. Brazil hosted a recent Green Summit with a measureable level of success. It seems that some of the developing nations with the most to lose and a younger average demographic may actually emerge as leaders in the reduction of Carbon emissions. The politicians in these companies have to actually enact legislation that seeks to improve conditions or they certainly will be forced out of office. We seem to punish political ambition and change to the status quo in the US. Clearly the lobbyists firmly control Washington so we certainly are never surprised. Obama actually is attempting to institute reform which has unfortunately not always been the healthiest course of action for US Presidents Historically.
In unrelated news, Australian Marine Biologists concluded a study on Whales. Specifically, they determined that whale poop decreases CO2 levels in the atmosphere and helps balance the Oceans ecology. It would seem you would need a great deal of whale excrement to make any substantial impact and we were under the impression that whales are on the endangered species list. The Oceans are rather scary in reality as pollution levels sky rocket and fishing stocks are decimated. This troubles us greatly as we love to surf and blue water fish. In fact there is a good swell currently and we will be paddling out soon in the midst of bacteria warnings as the recent rain washes all kinds of lovely refuse out of storm drains into the ocean. The only upside of this is not having to go for yearly flu shots as you tend to be exposed to most of the germs out there while in the water.
Sustainability is an amazing concept. We have seen the most amazing projects in Central America and Hawaii two of our favorite destinations. Many additional islands are following suit as it is often less expensive to “Go Green” than to continue importing materials to use for energy and fuel. Wind, solar and even wave generated power are leading the way though biodiesel is gaining some traction as an alternative to importing diesel. We noticed that the communities already existing in more cooperative relationship with nature seem more adaptable to adopting a “Green Lifestyle.”
Jenson Daily Green Piece
"Earth Day, Green Day, Celebrities Taking Part in Droves, Next Bubble Sector in the Making and more!"
Date: 4/22/2010
We are certain this will be the biggest Earth day in recorded history. Being Green has become so ultra hip that athletes, celebrities and politicians are taking the spotlight away from scientists as they auction off their respective time to be donated to, “…a charity of their choosing.” For those of you who are not aware of the lenient tax enforcement of non religion based not for profit organizations, we implore you to actually put the money where it should go lest your G5 be struck by wind on your next descent into Aspen. Sarcasm aside, it is quite refreshing to see high profile figures taking a stand for the Earth. Perhaps they will go even further actually gaining knowledge regarding the rapidly evolving innovations in the Green Sector as they strive so adamantly to be identified with. We are now quite certain that the Green Sector has all the characteristics of the next bubble sector. Actors, athletes and politicians being readily courted by the press concerning their “opinion” (for some reason it often carries more weight than a Nobel Prize winning scientist) on environmental issues is just another piece of evidence confirming our position that the Green Bubble is currently developing.
It’s rather anticlimactic to even write a Green Piece on Earth Day. Considering the fact that it will be plastered everywhere today, we almost are tempted to sit back and watch the action. We would recommend observing the amount of attention that is focused on the Green Sector on this Earth Day. The general hypothesis here is that high quality Green Stocks should have increased volume and trend up in the market. Perhaps even shrug off any market morose from Asia’s lackluster day and flat to down EU markets.
HAPPY EARTH DAY
PARK YOUR CAR AND WALK SOMEWHERE TODAY
Jenson Daily Green Piece
"Merrill Lynch B of A opinion on the DOW, Brain Drain to Hedge Funds, Private Equity Groups and Hybrid Investment Vehicles, More on Market Bubbles, Green Sector and more!"
Date: 4/16/2010
Well our greatest fears were relieved yesterday as the financial brains at Merrill Lynch B of A claimed that they were seeing sure historically proven technical indicators of a pullback from 4%-7% short term in the Dow. They expanded on this with the possibility of inflation rising and the dollar gaining in value. There has been a great brain drain in the US Securities industry obviously. Do they need read the same news we do with the Fed stating it will keep rates low for the foreseeable future? This article was very troubling to us as we ARE Market Historians and were quite partial to the claim that, “…historical data proves that…” We find this very troubling as even the analysts have jumped on the US Press Junket of scare tactics to get news in front of our well trained lemming mentality. On the other hand, we absolutely love this news as we know there will be selling into what we see as continued irrational exuberance or the Goldilocks Market as Kudlow so enjoys stating. We continue to firmly assert that there is no better asset class to currently invest in than US Markets. It’s easy to call overbought but can these over paid drones ever look past the numbers into the Historical reasons behind the continued market moves? I don’t remember one of these “Market Genius Analysts” coming out with Dow 12,000 in February when we stated our official Dow year end numbers. In fact, the market sentiment was negative predicting a move to test the lows of 2009. The brain drain is to hedge funds, private equity groups and hybrid investment vehicles that are now considered less risky career choices than large investment banks despite frightening attrition rates.
To answer the question forming in your mind the above paragraph has everything to do with the Green Industry. We have been working diligently to find parallels between the Green Sector and past Market Bubbles. A consistent theme that has continued to appear is the inability to place an accurate valuation of Green Sector Companies as the Government incentives often create uncertainty in regards to tax treatment advantages and how they will be reflected on balance sheets. In addition, we have cases such as FSLR a stock that took off and defied any logical trading pattern becoming a day traders dream. We often enter the market through futures contracts and often place these on indexes or sectors. The stocks in the Green Sector that peak our attention are now being run through filters to see if it is possible to find the next FSLR. Irrational Exuberance is the friend to those who own out of the money calls. At this point we are not considering any short positions against the Green Sector. Even if there was a significant market correction, analysts would come forward to make the case that the Green Sector still has legs because of available tax credits and the ongoing development of new technologies. Next week we will break down two or three technologies or opportunities we find particularly interesting in the Green Sector.
Digg This 4/16 Green Piece Article Here!
Jenson Daily Green Piece
"Traders Intuition, More on Bubbles, Government Interaction with Green Market, Electric Vehicles, Entertainment Industry Obsession /w Being Green, Feedstock Biofuels, Jatropha's Potential and more!"
Date: 4/14/2010
My main column today highlighted some of my offbeat humor and candor as I speculated that evidence for the coming market Bubble was proven by the International Bubble Convention at the Exposition Center next to Disneyland (in Southern California). We often miss the signs that stand right in front of us and this is one of the times that seriously force us to pause in order to take note. The notion of intuition as an influencing factor for the seemingly unexplainable success of some traders is a proven fact. Phrases such as, “I felt the strong market today…” is quite common to heard coming from trading desks and a sampling of the vast array of other traders. Some would argue that a Bubble convention is merely coincidence but we do not believe in coincidence. Advanced Physics has created some interesting mathematic proofs for various hypotheses relating to String Theory and Universality Theory. Case and Point the first news story I read off the wires this morning was about a Congressional Brief that Parks and Empty spaces were important elements of Aesthetic, Environmental and Sustainability in dealing with Urban Sprawl. The PR was released by ASLA the Professional Association of Landscape Architects which evidently has been in existence since approximately 1890. Of course, the Government makes extremely obvious statements but we were caught off guard by the use of Sustainability. A rather large word for a Congressman we would venture, but here clearly a third ingredient for a coming Market Bubble, government recognition. This recognition always goes far beyond lip service. In fact, it seems in the vast majority of Bubbles, the government through a lack of regulating evolving business, beneficial tax treatment or financial incentives for a given sector creating an artificial competitive advantage. This causes a skew in pricing as competition is eliminated or forced to give up exurbanite percentages of market share.
In the case of a coming Green Bubble we believe that a radical shift in market share could be a very good thing for the environment at the peril of the fossil fuel behemoths. Honda and a myriad of smaller manufacturers have functioning electric scooters that could well avert a global disaster if petroleum powered vehicles were used to supply the exponentially increasing demand for transportation in third world countries. Ford, Honda, Toyota and Tesla now offer high performance electric vehicles that are quickly replacing a huge portion of the gas powered vehicles throughout the world. In Los Angeles, Larry David from Curb Your Enthusiasm explores the comical nature of the Entertainment Industry’s obsession with being Green. For anyone who travels in Southern California the sheer number of battery powered vehicles on the road is nothing short of staggering.
We have been following developments in the biodiesel and alternative fuel space for some time now. There have been mini bubbles that developed around the hype of ethanol and more recently hydrogen powered vehicles. Any biodiesel that is comprised by feedstock consumable by humans is destined to fail as increasing population demands in combination with decreasing arable acreage is creating huge inflation of related commodity prices. We can’t help but comment, “Remember the Hindenburg…” whenever we read about promising hydrogen technology. The radically volatile nature of hydrogen causes us great concern as it is nearly impossible to safely transport and we shudder to think what might happen in a serious automobile accident. Jatropha is the most promising biodiesel in our opinion. An inedible bulbous seed that grows on a large plant composed partially of nitrogen and native to semi tropical regions throughout the globe, Jatropha is fast becoming the biodiesel of choice throughout the EU and worldwide. We will analyze the biodiesel industry in a coming piece but note that close attention should be placed on this amazing plant. Jatropha is but one attractive answer to the pressing question of what will become with the greatest per unit polluters on the road today…commercial trucks. We truly did not believe that we would see battery technology capable of generating the power needed to move a 25 plus ton load. Amazingly, we have begun to see a few incredible companies that already have such vehicles in production.
Have a Green day…
Digg This 4/14 Green Piece Article Here!
Jenson Daily Green Piece
"Green Sector on the Rise, New Age Green Movement, Green Bubble Potential, Analysis of Other Bubbles, Sustainability, Man-Bear-Pig syndrome, Al Gore & South Park and More."
Date: 4/13/2010
There is an ever increasing shift in consciousness concerning the environment. This increased alertness is taking place on every conceivable level throughout the world. Unlike previous environmental movements, we are not observing a select group of radicals rioting with baton wielding police outside of a G20 conference. There are no stories of animal rights activists freeing howler monkeys from labs or Earth First “Green Soldiers” burning car lots of Hummer’s. Even our esteemed Governor “The Terminator” changed his Hummer into a “Green vehicle.” Currently, we are observing an ever increasing number of companies rapidly growing in the “Green Sector.” From international solar energy stock darlings such as FSLR to “Green” luxury automobile manufacturer Tesla, there is an enormous amount of capital entering the “Green Sector.” This is fast becoming our favorite sector and we will be devoting a significant amount of time to covering the sector.
The questions of why green and why now demand a bit of analysis in relation to market history. It is not a stretch to begin the analysis with a brief discussion of investment bubbles throughout financial history. Many market historians make reference to the East India “Tea” Company and the first study of market bubbles in relation to the British Company undercutting local merchants using tax-exempt status to gain an international monopoly on trade primarily in Tea beginning in the 1600’s. Without wasting time posing arguments based on our opinion concerning corporate greed, it is instead interesting to view the notion of tax incentive advantages related to competition in the Green Sector. We venture that the next market “Bubble” may well find its foundation in the “Green Sector.” Similar to the .COM Bubble, the technologies being created in the “Green Sector” are definitely useful innovations that seemingly benefit the environment. Unlike the meritless Real Estate Bubble consisting of increasing home values with no technological advancements in building materials or technology, a potential “Green Bubble” is framed by revolutionary technological developments. I shudder at our use of the word Revolutionary as it is the harbinger of doom for any Bubble, but the supporting technology seems present and the second necessary component of a Bubble mass media attention is clearly visible on the financial newswires.
We will return to the analysis of the potential for a Green Bubble. Additionally we will review the .COM Bubble and the Real Estate Bubble in an attempt to identify if there are underlying patterns that can be applied to investing models in the “Green Sector.”
Though Green technology has been around for some time, the more recent international attention focused on the sector is evolving as it is driven by an ever increasing number of treaties, protocols and summits. There are a number of major environmental concerns that primarily seem to be driving much of the legislation and subsequent innovations in the Green Sector. Sustainability has become a word that is used daily in the “Green Sector.” Though a specific definition of sustainability may be elusive, the general application of the word focuses on creating lasting solutions that leave the smallest “Footprint” in whatever environmental sector it pertains to. The “Carbon Footprint” is becoming an increasing flashpoint in the sector. The burning of fossil fuels produces carbon and other emissions destructive to the Earth’s atmosphere. Though there are a number of opinions as to whether these emissions truly cause “Global Warming” (or man-bear-pig syndrome as Al Gore and South Park fans might identify with), it is scientific fact that these emissions are damaging to the environment. Subsequently, the Kyoto Protocol is a commitment by 37 industrial nations to reduce “Green House Gas” emissions over the period 2008-2012. Power plants burning coal and automobiles are at the forefront of the Kyoto Protocol’s agenda. The UN masterminded including the Kyoto Protocol and additional protocols are resulting from an ever increasing number of treaties.
Digg This 4/13 Green Piece Article Here! |
